China is doing nothing about climate change

Myth:

China is responsible for a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it is doing nothing to get these emissions under control. There is no point other nations taking action until China does the same.

Fact:

While it is true that China is currently the world’s largest emitter of CO₂ and is responsible for 32 percent of the world’s annual total, on a per capita basis the nation is not a huge emitter. The emissions of the average American are double those of the average Chinese and almost nine times those of the average Indian. In addition, China is only responsible for 15.4 percent of the world’s cumulative emissions since the industrial revolution. This compares with 16.9 percent for Europe and 24.4 percent for the United States. So, it is quite disingenuous to single out China as the main culprit when it comes to global warming. 

Secondly, it is not true that China is doing nothing about climate change. In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced that the country would reach peak emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2060. In fact, the country is way ahead of schedule, with peak emissions reached in March 2024 and total emissions falling by 1.6 percent over the rest of that year. They fell again in 2025, and continued to do so in 2026. If this trend continues, China will reach net zero by 2054 – well ahead of many other nations.

The reason for this is not surprising. In 2022, the nation added 125 gigawatts of renewable energy to its grid. In 2023, the figure rose to 278GW, then to 357GW in 2024 and to 430GW in 2025. This has brought the total to 1,190GW over the last four years. To put this in context, the US managed to install just 45GW in 2024 and 30GW last year. China also had 215 gigawatt hours of battery storage in 2025 – two and a half times that of the United States – with this figure expected to rise to 720GWh by the end of 2027. By the middle of 2026, Australia had 17.5GWh of battery storage. 

All this means that China’s grid is now 42.4 percent renewable. (The nation gets 13.1 percent of its electricity from solar, 12.6 percent from hydro, 10.8 percent from wind, 4.6 percent from nuclear and 1.3 percent from bioenergy.) This total is only slightly less than Australia’s, and the trend shows no signs of slowing down. By the end of 2025, China had electrified 76 percent of its rail network, 98 percent of its buses, 99 percent of its two-wheelers and 12 percent of its passenger vehicle fleet. By August 2026, 65 percent of all cars purchased were EVs (up from 4.8 percent in 2019), with EV sales expected to reach almost 100 percent within a couple of years. In addition, 44 percent of all heavy-duty trucks sold were fully-electric – up from just 9 percent in 2024. The number is expected to reach 60 percent by the end of 2026! The nation has 9,000 public charging stations dedicated to heavy-duty electric trucks, and another 24 million charge points devoted to EVs in general.

A wind farm in China [Source: Wikimedia Commons]

China is also taking other steps to reduce its emissions. In June 2021, it introduced an emissions trading scheme (ETS) to punish companies emitting CO2, and to encourage a shift to renewables. This priced emissions at US$6.30 a tonne and rose to US$10 in 2025. [By contrast, California’s ETS prices emissions at US$17 a tonne, while the EU’s scheme does so at US$98 a tonne (up from US$5.50 in 2017). Julia Gillard’s carbon tax, which Tony Abbott said would destroy the Australian economy, was US$20 (A$24) a tonne.] The Chinese ETS is already the biggest in the world, but will need to be ramped up considerably if the nation is to reach zero net emissions by the middle of the century. 

Despite all of these initiatives, it is true that China is still building coal-fired power stations, but these will likely only be used as backups, to avoid a repetition of the power shortages that occurred in 2021-22. (These were the result of a severe drought that reduced the nation’s hydroelectric output.) Those coming online now also represent decisions that were made between five and seven years ago, before China fully committed itself to renewables. In fact, coal is in steep decline in China, falling at a rate of 2 percentage points a year. In the first half of 2025, its use fell by 3.4 percent. That year it was responsible for only 55 percent of the nation’s electricity generation, and China’s coal-fired power stations were operating at only 44.8 percent capacity. This is why coal use is going down, even though new plants are coming online. With gas representing 3 percent of the nation’s electrical generation use, renewables now make up 42 percent – and growing rapidly! 

Besides doing its bit to stop climate change, China has other important reasons for reducing its carbon emissions. Foremost among these is the fact that its cities have been among the most polluted in the world, and the only way to reduce this pollution has been to stop burning coal and oil. In addition, many of its coastal cities are very low-lying and face inundation, even with relatively modest rises in sea levels. Similarly, its river systems are fed by glaciers that are threatened by warmer temperatures. Their loss would devastate the nation’s agriculture. The Chinese government is well aware of these problems.

Shanghai is only 3 to 4 metres above the waterline and will therefore be more prone to flooding if the Earth continues to heat up. [Source: Wikimedia Commons]

Another reason to decarbonise is that China cannot aspire to superpower status while being dependent on fossil fuel imports, and it lacks sufficient domestic supplies to pursue a policy of fossil fuel autarchy. Were a war to come, the country would be vulnerable to a cut-off of oil, coal and gas supplies, and it does not have the military might or political will to defend far-off sea lanes. Decarbonisation is the only way it can achieve energy self-sufficiency.

Of course, climate sceptics argue that smaller nations should not take action on climate unless larger ones take the lead, but there are strong moral reasons to reject this view. In fact, it is similar to that espoused by slave traders in the 18^th century. If England were to withdraw from the slave trade, they asserted, other countries would simply fill the vacuum; no fewer slaves would be traded and England would deny itself an important source of income. William Wilberforce and the abolitionist movement, by contrast, argued that Britain had a moral obligation to act, irrespective of the cost. As it turned out, Britain’s decision to ban the slave trade shamed other nations into taking similar action. Within a dozen years of that decision, trade in human cargo was at an end. Slavery itself was abolished over subsequent decades.

Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson put the moral argument about climate change very succinctly in 2020, when he said that it was incumbent on the countries that had put most of the CO₂ into the atmosphere to act first to take it out. Under Johnson, Britain committed itself to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Sources:

“Which countries are historically responsible for climate change,” Carbon Brief, 5/10/21

Tara Subramaniam, “The world needs India to avert climate catastrophe. Can Modi deliver?” CNN, 8/12/22

European Commission, “GHG emissions of all world countries,” EDGAR – Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, 2025. https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2025

“CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” Our World in Data, 2025

Joshua S. Hill, “China smashes rooftop solar installation record, as emissions fall despite demand growth,” Renew Economy, 19/5/25

Jessica Sier, “From solar panels to super dams: China’s clean energy takeover,” Financial Review, 25/7/25

Jo Lauder, “Why China is becoming the world’s first electrostate,” ABC News, 13/8/25

Aniruddha Ghosal, “China’s diesel trucks are shifting to electric. That could change global LNG and diesel demand,” AP, 19/11/25

Agence France-Presse, “China added record wind and solar power in 2025, data shows,” The Courthouse News Service, 28/1/26

Joshua S. Hill, “No wind farms in China? Trump claim torched by record year of new wind capacity, mostly in China,” Renew Economy, 16/3/26

Sophie Vorrath, “‘Solar surge’, China smashes PV export records as energy crisis fast-tracks fossil fuel exodus,” Renew Economy, 23/4/26

International Energy Agency, Electrification Special Report, September 2026, https://www.iea.org/reports/electrification

“In China, solar capacity surpasses coal as emissions drop,” Climate Energy Finance Newsletter, 8/10/26