Myth:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s own figures show that the Earth has warmed far less than 1.3°C.
Fact:
This view has arisen due to the fact that the IPCC’s temperature figures are averages and contain a significant margin of error. That margin of error is estimated to be 0.2°C above or below the stated figure of 1.3°C. While this does indeed mean that the Earth’s temperature could have risen by only 1.1°C since the second half of the 19th century, it also means it could have risen by as much as 1.5°C. In other words, it’s possible the situation is not quite as bad as we fear (albeit still bad!); but it’s also possible that it’s worse. Climate sceptics are happy to assume that the official figure is an overestimation but shirk from the possibility that it is actually the opposite. The most reliable figure we have is the one officially used by the IPCC – the global average.
Members of the IPCC, releasing on of their regular reports. [Source: Flickr. Creator: UN DDR]
Sources:
Steve Turton, “Global sea and air temperatures are spiking, ahead of El Niño. We should be very concerned,” Renew Economy, 21/6/23
Damian Carrington, “Earth’s ‘vital signs’ worse than at any time in human history, scientists warn,” The Guardian, 25/10/23
Kimberley Reid, “Why are so many climate records breaking all at once?” Renew Economy, 7/7/23
“Global Temperature Report for 2024, Berkeley Earth, 10/1/25
Zeke Hausfather, “State of the climate: 2024 will be first year above 1.5C of global warming,” Carbon Brief, 7/11/24
Zeke Hausfather, “State of the climate: 2024 will be first year above 1.5C of global warming,” Carbon Brief, 7/11/24